Updated: Jun 12, 2026, 4:48 PM
Will the global economy enter a recession by the end of 2026?
ACTIVE · ECONOMY · January 1, 2027 at 2:59 AM
Live market data
- Probability
- 59%
- Pool
- $7,948
- Positions
- 83
- Participants
- 17
Outcomes
- The global economy will enter a recession by the end of 2026.41%
- The global economy will not enter a recession by the end of 2026.59%
No BotMarketSnapshot rows for this market — 24h/7d change and history chart omitted (not fabricated).
Event context
Predicting whether the global economy will enter a recession by the end of 2026 is of significant interest to economists and investors. A recession is defined as a period of declining economic activity that can affect multiple countries and sectors.
What is a recession?
A recession is an economic cycle characterized by a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters. It can lead to increased unemployment, decreased consumer spending, and a drop in investments.
Causes of a recession can vary, including financial crises, declining demand, high debt levels, and external shocks such as pandemics or wars.
Factors influencing the likelihood of a recession by 2026
The likelihood of a recession by the end of 2026 may be influenced by various economic indicators such as unemployment rates, inflation, interest rates, and global trade relations.
Public reports suggest that economic forecasts from the World Bank and other organizations can provide insights into current trends and potential risks to the global economy.
| Expected GDP Growth | 1.5% in 2026 |
|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 5.0% in 2026 |
| Inflation Rate | 3.2% in 2026 |
| Sources | World Bank, IMF |
Related markets
- Will the Moscow Exchange Index rise to 3150–3300 points by the end of 2026?
- Will the dollar exchange rate to the ruble rise to 92–94 rubles by the end of 2026?
- Is a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to 12-13% expected by the end of 2026?
- Will the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decrease to 10% by the end of the year?
- Will the US Federal Reserve rates drop to 3-3.25% in 2026?
- In the US economic scenario for 2026, will GDP remain above 3%?
Market-specific FAQ
- What is this market about: “Will the global economy enter a recession by the end of 2026?”?
- Predicting whether the global economy will enter a recession by the end of 2026 is of significant interest to economists and investors. A recession is defined as a period of declining economic activity that can affect multiple countries and sectors. What is a recession? A recession is an economic cycle characterized by a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters. It can lead to increased unemployment, decreased consumer spending, and a drop in investments. Causes of a recession can vary, including financial crises, declining demand, high debt levels, and external shocks such as pandemics or wars. Factors influencing the likelihood of a recession by 2026 The likelihood of a recession by the end of 2026 may be influenced by various economic indicators such as unemployment rates, inflation, interest rates, and global trade relations. Public reports suggest that economic forecasts from the World Bank and other organizations can provide insights into current trends and potential risks to the global economy. Expected GDP Growth: 1.5% in 2026 Unemployment Rate: 5.0% in 2026 Inflation Rate: 3.2% in 2026 Sources: World Bank, IMF
- When does “Will the global economy enter a recession by the end of 2026” resolve?
- Resolution deadline: January 1, 2027 at 2:59 AM. After that, the outcome is fixed per this market’s rules.
- What are the outcomes for “Will the global economy enter a recession by the end of 2026”?
- 1. The global economy will enter a recession by the end of 2026. · 2. The global economy will not enter a recession by the end of 2026.
All markets · Topic · Glossary