Updated:

Will there be official reports of the use of 'Oreshnik' missiles against cities in NATO countries by December 31, 2026?

Prediction market for: Will there be official reports of the use of 'Oreshnik' missiles against cities in NATO countries by December 31, 2026?

Volume
1,569 USDT
Participants
8
Status
Open
Market closes
Open position

About the event

The market is about whether the conflict between NATO and Russia will escalate into a phase of direct confrontation involving the use of 'Oreshnik' missiles against cities in NATO countries. The outcome is considered 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2026, there is official confirmation (a statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense, NATO, or the government of a NATO member country, or a report from a major international agency citing an official source) regarding the use of 'Oreshnik' missiles against cities in NATO countries. Source of publication: https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/2111807587070996767

Source of publication: https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/2111807587070996767?s=20

Outcomes and probabilities

  • Yes10%
  • No90%

Probabilities reflect participant positions and do not guarantee the event's outcome.

Resolution rules

Resolution source: www.reuters.com

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Questions about this market

When does this market close?
Will there be official reports of the use of 'Oreshnik' missiles against cities in NATO countries by December 31, 2026? — December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC.
Which outcomes are available?
Yes · No